What are the chances of getting a knife in CSGO/CS2 from the case opening?

what are the chances of getting a knife in CSGO? What is the number of CSGO cases required to get the item I need? We can almost guarantee that every Counter-Strike gamer with a skin collection obsession has pondered these very same things.

Players in Counter-Strike: Global Offensive open almost one million cases daily. Everyone desires a rare skin, or even better, a knife or gloves. Imagine yourself unboxing a shiny new M9 Gamma Doppler from an ordinary yellow box.

You may be asking what the chances are of getting a knife from a CS2 case if you’re planning to open some cases yourself. You should absolutely know your odds of winning big before you empty your Steam cash on those expensive case keys.

Chances of Getting a Knife in CS2

Regular cases contain items of five rarity levels, from least rare to most:

  • Mil-Spec with a 79.9% drop rate
  • Restricted with a 16% drop rate
  • Classified with a 3.2% drop rate
  • Covert with a 0.64% drop rate
  • Rare Special Items with a 0.26% drop rate

Updated CS:GO Opening Odds Announced by Valve

The Chinese Ministry of Culture had requested that all game producers openly disclose the contents of loot crates and their relative odds in compliance with their regulations, and as a result, Valve was compelled to disclose this information.

After that, in 2017, Valve released an announcement that revealed all of the odds for their weapon cases.

We can deduce the following from Valve’s announcement:

RarityChances of Obtaining
Exceedingly Rare (Yellow – Knife)0.26%
Covert (Red)0.64%
Classified (Pink)3.2%
Restricted (Purple)15.98%
Mil-Spec (Blue)79.92%

To put it simply, the odds of a knife falling from your fifteenth or fifteen hundredth case are equal. Because there is no way to make the odds of dropping a knife from its case any higher, this is just a question of luck.

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